BY MONTE DUTTON, AOL

TV ratings and attendance are down, the economy is shot and Jimmie Johnson is trying to become the first driver in NASCAR history to win four straight championships. That's NASCAR in a nutshell as everyone regroups for another season.

Johnson, the driver who has mattered most over the last three seasons, is well down the list in terms of popularity. Few dislike anything other than his annoying habit of winning more than anyone else. Johnson dominates the track, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., who finished last in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, dominates the grandstands.

With dissension mounting, Johnson doesn't appear to be the guy to lead the surge. He's just great. He's not charismatic. He's a nice guy, not a likable rogue. There's nothing fake about him. If he seems too perfect, it's only because he is. There's just not that much "there" there.

But the races aren't run in marketing firms, where Johnson has no negatives but precious few positives. Johnson, who, along with crew chief Chad Knaus, has mastered the Chase format, is likely to win it again in lieu of anyone else who has proved -- yet! -- that he is capable of running the season's final 10 races at Johnson's firmly established level of excellence.

In the last two seasons, Johnson has produced the two best average finishes (5.0, 2007; 5.7, 2008) in Chase history. In such a contrived, compacted format, bad luck could beat Johnson. Johnson won't beat himself, though.

So what else happens? Who gives Johnson a run? Who falls flat on his face? Who overachieves? Who underachieves? Who goes out of business? Who emerges?

CUT TO THE CHASE: Off the top of my head, with only a perfunctory glance at the 2008 standings and results, here are my choices: Johnson, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Earnhardt Jr., Kurt Busch and Brian Vickers. That means that Clint Bowyer and Tony Stewart don't make it. Just a hunch.

THE MISERY COMES LATER: A sense of doom has fallen over struggling teams. Hundreds of employees have been laid off in the NASCAR industry. Looks will be eerily deceiving in February at Daytona, though. Most existing teams will make a last-ditch stab at pulling a sponsor out of the hat. Unless the new president miraculously jump-starts the economy and some sense of optimism re-emerges, those efforts will fail, and teams will gradually fall by the wayside shortly thereafter.

THE RICH TAKE OVER: The top teams -- Hendrick, Roush Fenway, Gibbs, Childress -- won't just get richer. They'll probably benefit from fire sales elsewhere.

PUBLIC SCRUTINY: NASCAR had better be aware of a public-relations problem. If and when the government bails out the domestic auto industry, it's going to foster a deserved sense of entitlement among the taxpayers. Contrary to official NASCAR statistics, not everyone is a racing fan. Many are going to grumble about the Big Three spending millions on racing. NASCAR -- not just GM, Ford and Chrysler -- had better know how to energetically and reasonably respond.

IT GETS HARDER: At Daytona, it will appear as if Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman are a match made in heaven. Stewart Haas Racing will look first-rate. Remember a year ago when the same things were written about Penske Racing? The Daytona 500 will be a stirring show, but it won't have much to do with the rest of the season. A "superteam" isn't built overnight, and Stewart will have his share of frustrations in year one as an owner.

IF THEY LEARN THEIR LESSONS: Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch are ready to win championships. Edwards has to mature just a little more to match the unremitting precision of Johnson. Busch has to get his disastrous Chase history behind him. He and his team have to learn from their mistakes.

THE FINAL CHALLENGE: Jeff Gordon will either bounce back with a vengeance or settle into the elder statesman's role. Gordon won't do the latter comfortably. He's not going to be a hanger-on. Either he'll regain his edge or he won't be around that much longer. Retirement's not imminent, but it's on the horizon if this racing gig stops being worth his while.

PHASE THREE: Toyota languished in its first season. Then it acquired a top team, Joe Gibbs Racing, and that team alone propelled Toyota's rise. JGR is a bit weakened with Stewart's departure. It's time for Toyota's other teams to step up, and if they don't, they won't be around much longer. Phase Four might mean revisiting the acquisition stage.

HERE TO STAY: In the new car (nee COT), fuel tanks are smaller. That means more pit stops, meaningless lead changes, suspect caution flags and de facto TV timeouts. The trend toward victories based on strategy, not just speed, will continue. What a great time for a NASCAR green initiative! Improve the gas mileage, save the planet, end dependence on foreign oil and take the checkered flag, all at once!

MIGHT AS WELL: Since the Big Three automakers are making pleas to Congress, how about a plea to NASCAR? Give the cars more identity. Make an Impala on the track look at least a little like an Impala in the showroom. C'mon, NASCAR. Work with us on this. We're desperate.