NFL Draft Scout

Johnson's Chase lead proves his mastery of system

BY MONTE DUTTON, AOL

AVONDALE, Ariz. -- The words of an old country song come to mind in regard to Jimmie Johnson and NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup:

"There ain't no chains strong enough to lock me ..."

When NASCAR implemented the format in 2004, the idea was to create an exciting finish to each season. Grade the regular season on a curve, siphon off the elite (first 10, then 12), push a reset button to make them relatively equal and watch them scramble for 10 weeks.

Scramble, huh? Everyone but Johnson is getting hard-boiled.

All that separates Johnson from a third straight championship is the need to finish 36th in the final race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The only time Johnson failed to finish 36th this year was in May at Lowe's Motor Speedway. And he only needs to finish as high as 36th if his only remaining would-be pursuer, Carl Edwards, wins the Ford 400 and leads the most laps.

It is so over.

No format can stop Johnson and pitiless crew chief Chad Knaus. A year ago Johnson's average finish in the Chase was 5.0. This year it's 4.67. The wonder, at this point, is that there were actually two Chases held (2004-05) that Johnson didn't win. While other drivers grumbled that the Chase was all too random and that luck was too crucial, Johnson and Knaus were studying and mastering it.

The fact that Johnson is 141 points ahead isn't luck. It's damn near perfection.

Yet Johnson remains humble and magnanimous. B-O-R-I-N-G. After winning at Phoenix International Raceway on Sunday, Johnson talked about how he was more nervous than usual before the race, and how, when an early rain delay occurred, he wasn't confident that he could win, and how anything still could happen.

It took the second-place finisher, Kurt Busch (who won the first Chase), to put Johnson's domination in perspective.

"They're on their game," said the 2004 champion. "It's something special to watch."

Edwards put up a fight. He won the two races entering Phoenix, but let's be real. Edwards' Texas victory put him within 106 points of Johnson. He still had only two weeks to make up that imposing margin. Edwards finished fourth. He lost 35 points.

What was touted as a bold comeback, in retrospect, was more like a futile gesture. Edwards was the mouse in the clutches of Johnson's tomcat. Johnson was toying with him.

The only thing approaching a misstep had been Johnson's 15th-place finish a week before. He could've done that again and been in decent shape. What's the use of prolonging the tension, though? Johnson went out and won. In fact, it was his third straight victory at Phoenix and seventh of the season. Edwards and Kyle Busch (remember him?) have eight. In terms of the championship, though, regular-season victories don't count so much. In the Chase, Johnson has three to Edwards' two. And that average finish, 4.67, obliterates Edwards' 8.78.

Such domination, in NASCAR, is usually fleeting, which is why no one except Cale Yarborough (1976-78) has heretofore won three straight titles. Richard Petty didn't do it. Dale Earnhardt didn't do it. Jeff Gordon hasn't done it.

Yet Johnson, who is about to do it, still doesn't get sufficient credit for being head-and-shoulders above everyone else during the span of his career. Until Kyle Busch effectively disappeared from the radar screens, this season was mainly a celebration of his incredible skills. When talk of pure talent arises, Johnson doesn't usually get mentioned until everyone has gotten past Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart and Gordon.

It might be instructive to start looking at the facts.

GREATEST HITS AMONG THE NOW-IRRELEVANT

--Every Chase has ended with wider margins than the ones previous. That pattern is almost certain to continue. Last year Johnson won by 77 points.

--For the second consecutive year, the standings would be closer without the Chase than with it. Under the system used up through 2003, Johnson's margin over Edwards -- who has one more victory, three more top-five finishes and four more top 10s -- would be 56 instead of 141.

--Yes, it actually rained in the desert, and at almost the same time it started, NASCAR officials waved a green flag even though clean-up trucks were still in turn two. Typically low-key was Johnson's radio remark: "Who's calling this race? Jesus criminy." Several other drivers were screaming.

--Lying in the wreckage of this Chase are Joe Gibbs' once-proud Toyotas, now occupying positions nine, 11 and 12 in the standings. Denny Hamlin trails Johnson by 471 points. Kyle Busch, he of the eight regular-season wins, is 481 out, and two-time champion and soon-to-be-departing Tony Stewart brings up the rear, a mere 502 back of Johnson.



--Claims to the contrary aside, once again, it wasn't a sellout. The most recent one was at Bristol in August. The great majority of Phoenix seats -- probably about 90 percent -- were filled, leaving track officials to claim "a soft sellout," or one presumably not based on hard facts. Since seating capacity is listed at 76,812 -- and reportedly some of those "seats" are on an overlooking mountain -- NASCAR's estimate that there were 100,000 fans on hand was, once again, absurd.



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