NFL Draft Scout

Stacked Southwest should be NBA's toughest

By Dave Del Grande

The Sports Xchange/CBSSports.com

There are those who believe the Southwest Division is the strongest in the NBA. And there are those who really don't know all that much about basketball.

How strong was the Southwest last season?

The fourth-place team, the league's winningest a year earlier, was considered a disappointment because it was victorious just 51 times. The third-place club won an amazing 21 in a row -- almost half with its star center out of the lineup. The second-place team came within three games of earning a repeat visit to the NBA Finals. And the division champ, led by one of the league's up-and-coming talents, improved by leaps and bounds in both wins (from 39 to 56) and entertainment value (100.9 points per game).

And this year?

The Mavericks have brought in a proven winner to coach basically the same cast that went 67-15 just two years ago; the Rockets made one of the league's biggest offseason acquisitions in Ron Artest; the Spurs return all their key players from three championships in the last six seasons; and the Hornets have every reason to believe their 17-game improvement last season has them headed to even greater heights this year.

And then there are the Grizzlies. Oh, well. Four out of five ain't bad.

HOUSTON

It seems the Rockets are never as good (or bad) as they appear. That's too bad, because they seem awfully good this season.

It's frightening to realize Houston finished within one win of the best record in the West last season despite playing 27 games without Yao Ming and 16 without Tracy McGrady. Both begin 2008-09 fully healthy and find themselves surrounded by the best supporting cast of McGrady's Rockets era.

Artest was imported from Sacramento to give the club a legitimate third scorer, and Brent Barry came over from rival San Antonio to provide the bench crew with some leadership. The club is now so deep, either Luis Scola or Shane Battier won't start. Guard Aaron Brooks and forward Carl Landry add much needed athleticism to the bench.

If there's a question mark (other than the annual injury occurrences), it's at point guard, where journeyman Rafer Alston must repeat his surprisingly good 2007-08 season or fear seeing his role handed to Steve Francis, who at age 31 is six years removed from his previous stardom as a Rocket.

NEW ORLEANS

The Hornets were the Tampa Bay Rays of the NBA West last year, sneaking up on everyone at first and then proving they truly belonged with a strong finish that allowed them to earn the No. 2 seeding in the Western playoffs. Repeating might be an even more difficult task.

MVP runner-up Chris Paul is the face of the franchise -- and rightfully so -- but the key to the Hornets' success last year was power forward David West, one of just six players leaguewide to average at least 20.6 points and 8.9 rebounds in 2007-08. He complements enigmatic Tyson Chandler up front, so it's incumbent upon West to be as consistent as he is productive.

The Hornets added swingman James Posey with a championship in mind. The veteran has earned rings in two of the last three seasons and adds two key elements to the team: a capable replacement should shooting guard Morris Peterson be as disappointing as he was last season, and insurance if often injured small forward Peja Stojakovic goes down again.

The Hornets failed to adequately replace Jannero Pargo in free agency (Devin Brown and Mike James will serve as Paul's backups) and lack a proven big man should something happen to Chandler. Emerging forward Julian Wright must be a contributor off the bench if the team is to handle the grind of a full-season assault on its division title.

SAN ANTONIO

The Spurs are very much looking forward to 2009, and it's easy to understand why. They've won NBA titles in four of the last five odd-numbered years. One big number, however, stands in the way: 2008. It'll be the final two months of this year that help determine the club's fate in '09.

The Spurs will be without supersub Manu Ginobili for most -- if not all -- of the '08 portion of the schedule following ankle surgery. And while the club was able to overcome 25 games without at least one member of its Big Three -- Tim Duncan, Ginobili and Tony Parker -- last season, the fatigue of matching strides with its younger rivals while short-handed eventually prevented San Antonio from repeating its 2007 title.

A key man in the club's quest not to overextend its healthy stars early in the season is Roger Mason, who was wrestled away from the Wizards. The swingman not only must replace Ginobili's scoring adequately, but he also needs to come up big on the many nights Michael Finley cannot as well as provide the quantity (Brent Barry) and quality (Robert Horry) of 3-point shooting that was lost over the summer.

Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas more than adequately book-end Duncan, and George Hill was drafted to keep Parker's minutes under 40 a night. Bruce Bowen also returns to provide consistency at small forward.

DALLAS

The Mavericks had some success under Don Nelson. They then reached greater heights with Avery Johnson. Now Rick Carlisle, more offense-minded than Johnson and defense-savvy than Nelson, takes over in an attempt to prove it has been the coaching -- not the talent -- that has prevented Mark Cuban's club from winning a championship.

The key: Making Nelson-type use of talented, yet unproven, athletes such as Antoine Wright and Gerald Green. It will be their ability to complement the many talents of Jason Kidd, Josh Howard and Dirk Nowitzki that should determine whether the Mavericks duplicate their 2006-07 success (67 wins) or their '07-08 failures (31 losses).

The Mavericks remain handcuffed by limited big men (Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop), so once again Nowitzki and a bunch of little guys should dominate the show. If all goes well, veterans Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse will join Green and Pacers castoff Shawne Williams on a dynamic bench crew that could be a difference-maker.

MEMPHIS

The Grizzlies set the baseline for their three-year improvement plan last season, winning just 22 games in Marc Iavaroni's first year as coach. If they're going to reach the playoffs by Year 3 -- it took 50 wins last season -- they must take major strides in '08-09.

In Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick, the Grizzlies might have the league's most potent relay team. But when it comes to passing the baton to a big man or someone off the bench, that's when you can expect a disaster of Olympic proportions.

Kyle Lowry, who backs up Conley at the point, provides the only consistency off the bench. It'll be up to starting center Darko Milicic and rookie Darrell Arthur of Kansas to prevent the paintwork from being as disastrous as it appears.



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